Introduction: The Rollercoaster Continues
Coming off the highs of the Ricky Ponting, Shreyas Iyer, and Rishabh Pant era, the Delhi Capitals had a middling Mega Auction in 2024 heading into the 2025 season. Despite the skepticism, the team's general vibe and a great start to the tournament put fans in high hopes again—before crashing and burning in typical Delhi Capitals fashion.
Looking forward to this upcoming mini-auction, there are several problems that the team must address with remaining 21.8 Cr to fill 8 spots and be truly competitive for the elusive IPL Trophy in the 2026 season.
Problem #1: Lack of an Opening Partnership
Last season's predominant theme was a carousel of openers and no fixed opening pair playing out the season. The team management had the right idea of focusing on having aggressive openers but did not have the correct players to execute the strategy.
KL Rahul performed well at his number four position but was constantly shuffled around to number three and then back to opening. His immense talent sometimes leads to a slower playstyle as he looks to conserve his wicket, unsure if his team will be able to post a respectable total without him. To solve this Delhi should focus on having him at #3, giving him clarity to be able to play aggressively from ball 1 (if the openers get a good start) or take his time and settle in (if we lose an early wicket).
We need an explosive opener who can take maximum advantage of the powerplay fielding restrictions —someone who plays like Jake Fraser-McGurk did in the 2024 season. Unfortunately, JFM has since dropped off in his performances, both in last year's IPL and in international matches, leading to his release for being overpriced. The current retained options (Karun Nair or Abhishek Porel) have good potential as shown last season, but neither are consistent nor score match-winning knocks.
Opening partnership combinations used by DC last season vs. other teams.
The Solution: Finding the "Explosive" Partner
The right plan is for Delhi to invest in a high-striking, explosive batsman who provides a level of consistency that our previous options lacked. We are looking for a profile similar to Phil Salt—an aggressor who allows the team to gain a good head start and can win some games on his own, reducing the dependence on KL.
Methodology Note
The analysis throughout this post is built on techniques explained in previous writing:
- Projecting Player Impact: Using machine learning models to forecast a player's expected performance (WAR) for the 2026 season, as explained in Projecting the 2026 IPL: An Analytical Comparison of Prediction Models.
- Estimating Market Value: Applying the VOPE, VOMAM and Machine Learning frameworks to estimate what price range a player should command, as detailed in Moneyball in the IPL: Quantifying Value for Money.
Auction Pool Explorer
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Based on comparing the Strike Rates, Boundary Percentage and Runs Above Average in the powerplay, I have shortlisted players that can play this role for Delhi. I have identified them into categories based on the requirements that they can check for the team. I believe based on the data, our strategy should be to acquire two players: an expensive, consistently aggressive opener and a decent backup option, for a combined budget of approximately 10 Cr since this is our biggest hole. Here's my tiered target list:
| Tier | Players | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1: Dream Buys | Finn Allen, Cameron Green | Young, consistent-ish and explosive openers. Could be retentions/cornerstones for the franchise going forward. Might go for over 8 Cr. |
| Tier 2: Realistic Targets | Jonny Bairstow, Ben Duckett, Jamie Smith | Solid openers with good consistency and aggressive playstyle, but inexperienced in IPL or older. Should be gettable in the 4-6 Cr range. |
| Tier 3: Backups | Jake Fraser-McGurk (high upside), Kusal Mendis, Matthew Short, Tom Banton, Quinton De Kock, Prithvi Shaw | Decent options that have shown potential before but are not projected to do exceptionally well in the 2026 season. Pick up at base price as backup. |
Problem #2: The Powerplay Bowling Void
Moving to our bowling, the second major issue is the lack of wickets in the opening overs.
Wickets taken in overs 0-6: DC vs. League Average.
Last season, Mitchell Starc started well but fell off significantly as the tournament progressed. This exposed a structural issue: the fragility and age of our fast bowling core. Natarajan, Starc, Mukesh Kumar, and Chameera are all injury-prone, and we lack durable backups.
The Philosophy
Analytically, taking wickets in the Powerplay is one of the highest-impact events in a T20 match. Since we have great control in the middle overs secured with our spin trio (Axar, Kuldeep, Vipraj), we need our pacers to be aggressors up top.
The Fix: Specialist Powerplay Bowlers
From the current auction stock, we need to target bowlers who can take wickets with the new ball:
Powerplay Bowling Auction Pool
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Filtering using the bowling strike rates and Runs above average in the powerplay overs, I have shortlisted some pacers that can be targeted. I have based them into tiers based on their ability to fix the gaps in our pace lineup:
| Tier | Players | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | Jason Behrendorff, Kyle Jamieson, Spencer Johnson | Powerplay specialists with swing and pace. Can exploit new ball conditions. |
| Backups | Anrich Nortje, Riley Meredith, William O'Rourke, Matheesha Pathirana, Jason Holder, Chetan Sakariya, Sean Abbott, Jacob Duffy, Jhye Richardson, Gerald Coetzee, Josh Tongue | Solid alternatives with powerplay capabilities and other strengths. Pick up if primary targets unavailable or available for a discount on the projected value. |
Problem #3: The Middle Order & Death Bowling Depth
Middle Over Spin Slow-down
Historically, our scoring rate dips against spin in the middle overs. The team has partially addressed this by acquiring Nitish Rana to collaborate with Axar Patel as a spin-basher.
DC's middle overs scoring rate compared to other teams.
Middle Order Auction Pool
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We can look to target middle order backups to strengthen our weak bench of players behind Stubbs and Ashutosh. I have identified players with a good record against spin and good SR and RAA in the middle overs. We should target based on our remaining budget in this order: Liam Livingstone, Daryl Mitchell, Abhinav Manohar, Mahipal Lomror
The Death Bowling Crisis
Death bowling was a liability last season. Starc tailed off, Mukesh isn't a "gun" death bowler, and Natarajan was injured.
The Natarajan Factor
If Natarajan plays the whole season and 80% as well as he did for Sunrisers, most of the problem will be solved.
The Backups Needed
We need some backups for our aging and injury-prone fast bowling corp: Target a high-upside young Indian fast bowler who can provide backup and complement our overseas fast bowler buy: Akash Madhwal (good at death bowling, complements a powerplay specialist), Chetan Sakariya (good at powerplay bowling, complements a death specialist like Pathirana), or Kuldeep Sen (hit-the-deck bowler, jack of all trades) — all available at base price or up to 2 Cr.
Death overs economy rates: DC vs. League comparison.
The Money: Squad Construction & Budget Math
If we execute this plan, we are effectively filling 5 major slots. Here is the estimated napkin math:
| Slot | Example Target | Estimated Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Explosive Opener | Finn Allen | ~6-8 Cr |
| Backup Opener | Ben Duckett | ~2 Cr |
| Powerplay Bowler | Behrendorff | ~6 Cr |
| Indian Pace Backup | Akash Madhwal | ~2 Cr |
| Middle Order Backup | Abhinav Manohar | ~2 Cr |
| Total Estimated Spend | ~18-20 Crores | |
The Final Slots: Leave Nothing on the Table
With the remaining 1.8 Crores, we should fill the remaining 3 roster spots with:
- Batting Depth: Indian rotation options like Yash Dhull or Atharva Taide.
- Spin Backup: A "Project Mystery Spinner" from the scouting reports at base price.
- The Best Prospect: The final slot should go to the absolute best raw prospect available, regardless of position.
If spending that last rupee gives us a 0.001% extra chance of success, we should spend it and not leave any money on the table like a lot of franchises do.
The Final Verdict: The 2026 Blueprint
Based on our analysis of the auction targets and squad depth, here is the ideal team structure for the 2026 season. This lineup balances explosive power with technical stability and offers the captain the bowling resources needed to control all three phases of the game.
The Ideal Playing XI
| Role | Player | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Opener | Finn Allen / JFM / Duckett | The Overseas Powerhouse. Maximizes Powerplay. Contributes Regularly. |
| Opener | Abhishek Porel / Karun Nair | The Indian Aggressor. Tasked with fast starts. Can develop into a bigger role. |
| No. 3 | KL Rahul (c) | Has the clarity to stabilize or accelerate based on match situation. |
| No. 4 | Nitish Rana | Spin-basher for the middle overs. |
| No. 5 | Tristan Stubbs | Best finisher from last season, developing to be a match-winner. Ideal entry: Overs 7-11. |
| No. 6 | Axar Patel | Promoted to kill spin. |
| No. 7 | Ashutosh Sharma | Finisher, takes some time to settle in. |
| No. 8 | Vipraj Nigam | Swings at everything; provides spin. |
| Bowler | Kuldeep Yadav | Premier Spinner (4 overs). |
| Bowler | Mitchell Starc | The Lead pacer. |
| Bowler | T. Natarajan | Death Specialist. |
| Bowler | Overseas Powerplay Specialist | Swing and early wickets (e.g., Behrendorff). |
(Note: The "Impact Player" rule likely swaps a batter like Porel/Rana for a specialist bowler in the second innings.)
The Tactical Approach
1. KL Rahul at #3
Moving KL Rahul to one-down enables the team to maximize the powerplay and still navigate difficult pitches.
The Logic:
We pair the Overseas Star with an Indian aggressor (Porel/Nair) to maximize damage in the Powerplay without fear of losing a wicket.
Scenario A (Early Wickets)
If we lose a wicket early (e.g., 10/1), Rahul comes in to calm the waters, assess the pitch, and anchor the innings—a role he excels at.
Scenario B (Flying Start)
If the openers blast off (e.g., 70/1), Rahul enters with a platform set. He does not have to waste deliveries setting up the game—he can step on the gas immediately.
2. Floating Batting Order
The order remains fluid. We send out players as per the conditions after the top order wickets fall.
- If we need stability, Stubbs/Rana/Rizvi can be promoted ahead.
- If we need to accelerate, Axar and Stubbs are promoted ahead of the anchors to keep the run rate high against spin.
3. Maximizing the Engine Room
- Tristan Stubbs: We want him facing as many balls as possible in the back half. His ideal entry point is the 7-11 over range, giving him time to get set before dismantling the death bowling.
- Ashutosh and Vipraj: The dedicated finishers. Ashutosh takes some time to settle before hitting, while Vipraj is the wildcard instructed to swing hard from ball one.
4. Bowling: Phase Control
Powerplay (Overs 1-6)
The Overseas Specialist (2-3 overs) + Starc (1-2 overs) hunt for wickets.
Middle Overs (Overs 7-15)
The "Spin Choke" with Kuldeep and Axar controlling the pace.
Death (Overs 16-20)
T. Natarajan takes the ``` lead (2-3 overs), supported by Starc.
These players and structure can help the team get into the playoffs and maximize chances. Addressing the three critical flaws—opening instability, the powerplay bowling void, and the lack of depth—will help us build a stronger team for this season and if the players are in good touch, maybe Delhi can finally bring home the elusive IPL trophy.